Bracketology: looking ahead to 2015 playoffs

Bracketology: looking ahead to 2015 playoffs

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 Class 2A No. 1 Rison and HC Clay Totty
look forward to playing at home
throughout the 2015 playoffs.

The playoffs start next week. Some playoff teams are set, but most of the brackets can't be filled out until Friday when all games are completed. Here's a list of most, but not all of the scenarios. Note: the tiebreaker points referred throughout is the margin of victory for each team in conference games, capped at 13 points. For example, a five-point victory equals five tiebreaker points, a 13-point win gets 13 points and a 50-point win gets 13 points.

CLASS 7A
CENTRAL -
Bryant and Conway play this week for the No. 1 seed; loser gets the No. 2 seed. Little Rock Catholic plays at Van Buren, with the winner getting the third playoff seed.

EAST - Cabot is the No. 1 seed. North Little Rock gets the No. 2 seed and a home playoff game with a win over Little Rock Central, which gives West Memphis the No. 3 seed. If LR Central wins, it creates a three-way tie for two playoff seeds.

WEST - Har-Ber is the conference champion and top playoff seed. It's Har-Ber's first conference title since 2009, the only time the Wildcats won the state championship. Bentonville plays at Fayetteville on Friday, with the winner getting the No. 2 seed and loser dropping to No. 3. Fort Smith Southside plays at FS Northside for the No. 4 and No. 5 seeds. Rogers travels to Springdale with the winner getting the final playoff spot.

CLASS 6A
EAST -
Jonesboro gets the No. 1 seed with a victory over Marion, leaving Searcy as the No. 2 seed and Marion No. 3. If Marion wins, it forces a three-way tie (all would be 2-1 against Class 6A teams in the East) for the No. 1 seed.

CENTRAL - Several scenarios exist. In one, Greenwood gets the No. 1 seed with a win over Alma. In this scenario, if Russellville beats Siloam Springs, then Russellville gets the No. 2 seed and Alma is the No. 3 seed. If Siloam Springs wins, the Panthers are the No. 3 seed. Another scenario exists if Alma upsets Greenwood, and Russellville beats Siloam Springs, creating a three-way tie for the No. 1 seed. If Greenwood beats Alma and Siloam Springs beat Russellville, then Greenwood gets the No. 1 seed, leaving Alma, Russellville and Siloam Springs tied for second, forcing a three-way tie for the final two seeds.

SOUTH - The conference title showdown features a rematch of last year's state championship game as Pine Bluff travels to Benton on Thursday. The winner gets the No. 1 seed; loser gets the No. 2 seed, and both have first-round byes. Lake Hamilton gets the No. 3 seed with a victory Thursday over winless LR Hall. Texarkana finishes as the No. 4 seed with a win at Sheridan on Friday. If Sheridan wins, the Yellowjackets make it as the No. 5 or No. 6 seed, depending on the outcome of El Dorado at LR Parkview. If Sheridan and El Dorado win, El Dorado is the No. 4 seed, Sheridan No. 5 and Texarkana No. 6. If Sheridan and LR Parkview win, it creates a four-way tie for the No. 4-6 seeds.

CLASS 5A
CENTRAL -
Regardless of what happens this week, the seeds are set. Pulaski Academy is conference champion and No. 1 seed, the Bruins sixth straight conference title. LR McClellan is the No. 2 seed, Beebe No. 3 and Sylvan Hills No. 4.

EAST - Too many scenarios exist to adequately cover. Batesville, Blytheville and Wynne are tied for the league lead and No. 1 seed with 5-1 conference records. All are favored to win this week. If they all win, Blytheville's five-point win at Valley View in midseason could hurt the Chickasaw's in the points tiebreaker system. Forrest City gets in with a win at Blytheville or a Nettleton loss. Nettleton only gets in with a victory at Wynne and a Forrest City loss. There's even a scenario of a four-way tie for the conference championship if Forrest City beats Blytheville while Batesville and Wynne lose.

SOUTH - Hot Springs Lakeside earned at least a share of the conference title (its first since 1975) and the top playoff seed with last week's come-from-behind victory over Watson Chapel. Hope is the second seed. Camden Fairview plays at Watson Chapel on Friday for the 3-4 seeds.

WEST - LR Christian is the conference champion (first since 2007), No. 1 seed and has home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Greenbrier gets the No. 2 seed with a win at Vilonia on Thursday, but the Panthers might not make it with a loss. Morrilton finishes as the No. 3 seed with a win and gets the No. 2 seed with a Greenbrier loss. Vilonia and Harrison are battling for a playoff spot. If Vilonia loses and Harrison wins, Harrison gets the No. 4 seed. If both lose, Vilonia gets in. If both win, Vilonia gets the No. 3 seed, Harrison No. 4 and Greenbrier falls out.

CLASS 4A
1-4A -
Prairie Grove has at least a share of the league title (its third in four years) and No. 1 seed. Pea Ridge plays at Shiloh Christian this week, and Shiloh Christian gets the No. 2 seed with a win, while Pea Ridge likely gets it with a win, depending on the points tiebreaker system. Gravette finishes as the No. 3 seed with a win at Gentry, but could fall to the No. 4 seed, depending on the outcome of Pea Ridge vs. Shiloh Christian. If Pea Ridge loses, the Blackhawks finish No. 4. Lincoln is the No. 5 seed (fourth playoff appearance in school history) and travels to Dardanelle in the first round.

2-4A
CAC is the conference champion and No. 1 seed (fourth league title in school history). Stuttgart plays host to CAC this week, and the Ricebirds can finish anywhere between the No. 2 and No. 4 seed. Heber Springs travels to West Helena. Both are in the playoffs and will finish between the No. 2 and No. 4 seeds. Lonoke plays at Riverview Thursday, with the winner earning the No. 5 seed.

3-4A
Pocahontas is the No. 1 seed for the second straight season. The Redskins have a first-round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Gosnell is the No. 2 seed and plays host to either Riverview or Lonoke in the first round. Highland, Trumann and Jonesboro Westside are tied for the third spot with 3-3 records, while Brookland has a chance to make the playoffs with a 2-4 record. Highland plays at Trumann on Thursday, with the winner getting the No. 3 seed. Highland has 39 tie-breaker points, Trumann 27 and Jonesboro Westside 25. Brookland has a shot to make the playoffs, but needs a victory over Cave City by at least six points and some help.

4-4A
Dardanelle repeats as conference champion and is the No. 1 seed. Dover, Pottsville and Pulaski Robinson are tied for second in the conference with 4-2 records. Before Week 10 games, Pulaski Robinson has 52 tiebreaker points, Dover 47 and Pottsville 40. Arkansas Baptist has at least the No. 5 seed, but could move into the No. 4 spot with a victory over Dover.

7-4A
Nashville has clinched at least a share of the league title (its 10th since 2000) and No. 1 seed. Ashdown gets the No. 2 seed with a victory at Fountain Lake, but the Panthers could fall to the No. 4 seed with a loss. If Fountain Lake and Malvern win, it creates a three-way tie for the second seed. Ashdown, Fountain Lake and Malvern all have 52 tiebreaker points, but in this scenario Malvern gets the No. 2 seed because it beat Fountain Lake, Fountain Lake is the No. 3 seed and Ashdown No. 4. Arkadelphia clinched a playoff spot with last week's 50-0 win over Bauxite, and the Badgers could move to the No. 4 seed with a win over Malvern coupled with a Fountain Lake victory.

8-4A
Warren is the No. 1 seed and has at least a share of its fourth straight conference championship. The Lumberjacks get a first-round bye, remain at home throughout the playoffs and likely play host to Nashville in the quarterfinals. Hamburg is the No. 2 seed, and for the second straight season travels to Dardanelle in the second round of the playoffs. Crossett, Dollarway and Star City are the 3-5 seeds. Star City and Dollarway have 4-2 records, while Crossett sits at 3-3. Star City travels to Crossett this week, while Dollarway plays at Warren.

CLASS 3A
1-3A

West Fork travels to Greenland this week for the No. 1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The loser gets the second seed and hosts a first-round playoff game. Elkins is the No. 3 seed. Mountain View gets the No. 4 seed with a win over Cedarville. Cedarville gets the No. 4 seed with a win over Mountain View and a Green Forest loss. Green Forest makes it with a win and Cedarville loss. If Cedarville and Green Forest both lose, Cedarville gets the No. 5 seed.

2-3A
Harding Academy plays Bald Knob Thursday for the conference title and top playoff seed, and the loser gets the No. 2 seed. Atkins, Marianna, Mayflower and Perrvyille are tied for third with 3-3 records, and play each other this week: Atkins at Perryville and Mayflower at Marianna. The winners will be the 3-4 seeds and the losers are matched up for the fifth seed. For the fifth seed tiebreakers, Marianna defeated Atkins, Perryville beat Marianna, Mayflower beat Perryville and Atkins beat Mayflower.

3-3A
Rivercrest gets the No. 1 seed with a victory over rival Osceola or if Hoxie loses to Manila on Thursday. If Rivercrest loses and Hoxie wins, then Hoxie gets the No. 1 seed. If both lose, then it creates a four-way tie with Hoxie, Manila, Osceola and Rivercrest. Cedar Ridge is the playoffs and can finish anywhere between the No. 3 and No. 5 seed.

4-3A
Danville gets a share of the league title, the No. 1 playoff seed and home field advantage throughout with a victory over Two Rivers. Lamar gets the No. 2 playoff seed with a win at Paris. Charleston gets the No. 3 seed with a win over Mansfield. Paris is at least the No. 4 seed and could move up to the No. No. 3 playoff seed with a win over Lamar coupled with a Charleston loss. Booneville gets the No. 5 seed with a win at Lavaca or Mansfield loss at Charleston, while Mansfield gets the No. 5 seed with a win and Booneville loss.

5-3A
Prescott owns at least a share of the league title (sixth conference title in eight years) and No. 1 playoff seed. Episcopal Collegiate travels to Glen Rose on Friday, with the winner getting the No. 2 seed and the loser the No. 3 spot. Centerpoint is the No. 4 seed, while the Horatio at Harmony Grove Haskell winner gets the No. 5 spot.

6-3A
Smackover has secured at least a share of its third straight conference title and the No. 1 seed. Fordyce is the No. 2 seed and Camden Harmony Grove No. 3. McGehee and Fouke finish as the No. 4 and No. 5 seeds. Fouke is heavily favored to beat Lake Village on Thursday, and the Panthers own the tiebreaker over McGehee.

CLASS 2A
3-2A

Earle plays at Cross County for the No. 1 seed; loser gets the No. 2 seed. Marked Tree earns the No. 3 seed with a win at Rector. Walnut Ridge likely gets the No. 4 spot. Salem gets the No. 5 spot with a victory at Midland on Thursday or if EPC loses to Walnut Ridge. EPC only makes it with a win and Salem loss.

4-2A
Hector is the top seed and conference champion (three straight league titles). Hackett finishes as the No. 2 seed, Mountainburg No. 3, Johnson County Westside No. 4 and Union Christian No. 5.

5-2A
England has at least a share of the conference championship (first since 1987) and secures the No. 1 seed with a victory over Poyen. An England victory puts Conway Christian as the No. 2 seed and Poyen as the No. 3. If Poyen wins, it creates a three-way tie for the 1-3 seeds. Magnet Cove is the No. 4 seed. Quitman gets the No. 5 seed with a win over Mountain Pine or if Bigelow losses to Conway Christian. Bigelow only gains the No. 5 seed with a win and a Quitman loss.

6-2A
McCrory is the conference champion (first since 2010) and No. 1 seed, and has home field advantage in the playoffs. Des Arc is No. 2 seed and Hazen No. 3. Brinkley and Carlisle are in the playoffs. Brinkley gets the No. 4 seed with a win over Marvell or if Carlisle losses to McCrory.

7-2A
Mount Ida has a share of the conference title (its second in three years) and earns the top seed with a victory over Lafayette County, which puts Gurdon as the No. 2 seed. If Lafayette County and Gurdon (plays host to Foreman) both win, it creates a three-way tie for the No. 1 seed. Dierks plays at Murfreesboro on Thursday, with the winner getting the No. 4 seed and the loser finishing as the No. 5 seed.

8-2A
Rison owns at least a share of the conference title (its third in six years), No. 1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Junction City gets the No. 2 seed with a win over Strong. If Strong and Hermitage (plays at Bearden) both win, it creates a three-way tie for second. If Hermitage wins, the Hermits likely gain the No. 3 seed. Parkers Chapel is the No. 5 seed.


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